Wash. Post reporting makes progress! Article concedes sea level computer model 'predictions could be flawed or flat wrong'Tuesday, June 09, 2009By Marc Morano – Climate Depot
The Washington Post's reporting on global warming has made an important step forward. Post Reporter David A. Fahrenthold's June 8, 2009 Washington Post article about global warming and sea level rise does a surprisingly decent job of reporting on the issue. Fahrenthold's article notes that the predicted increase in sea level by 2100 on the East Coast may be enough to "submerge a beach chair." The article then notes that the possibility of even a submerged "beach chair" by 2100 is only a "might." [Editor's Note: See below for sampling of scientific studies and scientists refuting sea level rise fears.] The next sentence in Fahrenthold's article should warm the hearts of journalism professors everywhere. "Scientists say the information comes from computer models, which could be wrong." [Editor's Note: Wow! A simple, but elegant sentence that is so often missing from many of today's climate change fear reporting about what might, may, could happen in 90 years. This sentence is also missing from the rhetoric of political leaders. Paging Energy Sec. Chu: See: Sec. Chu's assertions 'quite simply being proven wrong by the latest climate data' - Computer model predictions are not 'evidence' ] Perhaps most surprising is that Fahrenthold wrote a woeful Washington Post climate article on May19, 2009 that was easily refuted on multiple levels. (See: Wash. Post rebuked for laughable climate claims) Perhaps Fahrenthold received a flood of constructive criticism and took to heart many of the suggestions for improved reporting. In his new sea level article, Fahrenthold appears to really strive for fairness and accuracy. He noted that alarming scare scenarios of future sea level rise "would probably not happen for centuries." And he added: "Scientists concede that these predictions could be flawed or flat wrong." Once again, these words appeared in a news article on global warming in the Washington Post by a reporter who just two weeks earlier embarrassed himself with so much misinformation. This is quite simply progress. [Editor's Note: Other signs of recent media progress include: CBS Newsman Charles Osgood A Climate Skeptic? Questions Whether Quiet Sun May 'Counteract' Global Warming - April 21, 2009 & CNN's Lou Dobbs is no longer convinced climate debate is settled -- declared belief in global warming is 'almost a religion' ] Below is selected excerpts from the June 8, 2009 Washington Post article.
East Coast May Feel Rise in Sea Levels the Most Might. Scientists say the information comes from computer models, which could be wrong. [...] In the 20th century, global seas rose about 0.07 inches per year -- a steady climb up tide gauges, even as the world debated the existence and the science of climate change. [...] Another study last month found a threat from a Texas-size ice sheet in Antarctica. If it broke off and melted, the shift of mass from pole to ocean would change both Earth's gravitational field and its rotation. The result? Still more water would slosh to the U.S. Atlantic Coast, along with the Pacific Coast. But in this case, it would probably not happen for centuries. Scientists concede that these predictions could be flawed or flat wrong. [End Article Excerpt] # Sampling of scientific background of the latest sea level: 'No evidence for accelerated sea-level rise' says Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute – December 12, 2008
U.S. Senate Report on Scientists Counter Computer Model Sea Level Rise Fears - September 26, 2007 Excerpt: Nearly two dozen prominent scientists from around the world have denounced a recent Associated Press article promoting sea level fears in the year 2100 and beyond based on unproven computer models predictions. [...] Prominent scientist Professor Nils-Axel Morner, declared "the rapid rise in sea levels predicted by computer models simply cannot happen." [...] Internationally known forecasting pioneer Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania and his colleague Kesten Green Monash University in Australia: “As shown in our analysis experts' forecasts have no validity in situations characterized by high complexity, high uncertainty, and poor feedback. To date we are unaware of any forecasts of sea levels that adhere to proper (scientific) forecasting methodology and our quick search on Google Scholar came up short,” Armstrong and Green explained. “Media outlets should be clear when they are reporting on scientific work and when they are reporting on the opinions held by some scientists. Without scientific support for their forecasting methods, the concerns of scientists should not be used as a basis for public policy,” they concluded. [...] Ivy League geologist Dr. Robert Giegengack of the University of Pennsylvania, explains that sea level is only rising up 1.8 millimeters per year (0.07 inches) -- less than the thickness of one nickel. "Sea level is rising," Giegengack said, but it's been rising ever since warming set in 18,000 years ago, he explained. “So if for some reason this warming process that melts ice is cutting loose and accelerating, sea level doesn't know it. And sea level, we think, is the best indicator of global warming," he said. Report: Sea Level rise 'has stumbled since 2005' – Meteorologist Anthony Watts – December 5, 2008 Excerpt: We've been waiting for the UC web page to be updated with the most recent sea level data. It finally has been updated for 2008. It looks like the steady upward trend of sea level as measured by satellite has stumbled since 2005. The 60 day line in blue tells the story. From the University of Colorado web page: “Long-term mean sea level change is a variable of considerable interest in the studies of global climate change. The measurement of long-term changes in global mean sea level can provide an important corroboration of predictions by climate models of global warming. Long term sea level variations are primarily determined with two different methods.” - Yes, I would agree, it is indeed a variable of considerable interest. The question now is, how is it linked to global climate change (aka global warming) if CO2 continues to increase, and sea level does not? Global warming may not affect sea levels, study finds - January 11, 2008 Excerpt: Dr. Nils-Axel Moerner has pointed out, sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic “global warming” is a non-issue. Dr. Moerner, who has written 520 peer-reviewed papers on sea level in his 35-year career devoted solely to studying the issue, has concluded that sea level will rise in the 21st century by about 8 inches. Since 1993, when satellites first began to measure sea-level rise, the rate of increase has been about 1 ft/century, though there has been no statistically-significant sea-level rise during the past three years. Sea level is scarcely rising: The average rise in sea level over the past 10,000 years was 4 feet/century. During the 20th century it was 8 inches. In the past three years, sea level has scarcely risen at all. [...] Even the 2007 report of the UN's climate panel only predicts a sea-level rise of 1 ft 5 in this century (or 2 feet at most, reduced from a maximum of 3 feet in earlier reports), compared with an observed rise of just 8 inches in the 20th century. During the past 10,000 years, the mean centennial sea-level rise has been 4 feet/century. Therefore, on any view, even the UN's high-end estimate of sea-level rise is well within natural variability. Dr. Moerner is right to say that sea-level rise is a non-issue. Researchers scale back forecast of sea level rise...'half as much as predicted' - May 15, 2009 August 2, 2008: UN IPCC Scientist Richard Courtney: "There has been no significant alteration to the rate of sea level rise for about 10,000 years." Sea Level Rising Slower - May 6, 2009 MIT Scientist's study finds: Data may be 'insufficient to compute mean sea level trends' - Decadal Trends in Sea Level Patterns: 1993-2004 - By Dr. Carl Wunsch, MIT et al. in Journal of Climate - October 12, 2008 NYT Reporter Revkin Chastises NASA's James Hansen for sea level rise predictions - January 5, 2009 Excerpt: New York Times environmental reporter Andrew Revkin publicly chastised NASA warming scientist James Hansen for promoting sea level claims that are at the upper boundary of what is “even physically possible.” “[Hansen's] views are clearly at the upper boundary of what many glaciologists and oceanographers together see as realistic, or even physically possible, in a warming world,” Revkin wrote on January 5, 2009. 'Sea level rise has been taking place almost monotonically over the past 8,000 years' - January 4, 2008 Related Media Articles: Scientists Denounce AP's Borenstein For Hysterical Global Warming Article - December 15, 2008 Geologist Chides Revkin of New York Times for 'Strange, Silly' Climate Article - April 23, 2009 UK's Lord Monckton continues attack on NYT's Revkin for 'mendacious article'
Lord Monckton accuses NYT's Revkin of 'deliberate misrepresentation' in climate article Gore Mouthing-Off About Make-Believe Madoffs More Than 700 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims Andrew Revkin's attempt to smear skeptics detailed! – March 10, 2009 Update: More Revkin Woes - Was Climatologist Christy accurately quoted in NYT? - March 11, 2009 Challenge to Andrew Revkin of NYT From Marc Morano – January 16, 2009 Scientists Counter AP Article Promoting Computer Model Climate Fears - September 24, 2007 Newsweek's Climate Editorial Screed Violates Basic Standards of Journalism - August 5, 2007 “Hot & Cold Media Spin: A Challenge To Journalists Who Cover Global Warming” -September 25, 2006 ABCNEWS Climate Reporter: 'Scientists tell us civilization as we know it is over' “I don't like the word 'Balance''- Says ABC News Global Warming Reporter – October 30, 2006 New York Times Op-Ed Heat Wave Hype Melts Under Scrutiny NY Times Aug 2006 oped BROKAW'S OBJECTIVITY COMPROMISED IN GLOBAL WARMING SPECIAL – July 11, 2006 AP INCORRECTLY CLAIMS SCIENTISTS PRAISE GORE'S MOVIE June 27, 2006 Newsweek Admits Error on 70's Predictions of Coming Ice Age - October 24, 2006 US SENATE GLOBAL WARMING MEDIA HEARING EXPOSED ALARMIST MEDIA - December 6, 2006
       |
|
0
© Climate Depot by CFACT. All rights reserved.