Bjorn Lomborg: ‘Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-increasing fires, US fires burn 5-10x less today’

By Marc Morano

January 24, 2021
8:45 am

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1353012739736817666.html

Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-increasing fires

US fires burn 5-10x less today

Even with extreme warming, area burned will stay about same across century

Climate does increase burned area,

but zoning and forest management much more important

Refs in thread pic.twitter.com/pPd017JDBD

— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) January 23, 2021

Fire data 1960-2020 from nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireI…, plus NIFC 2020 estimate from Jan 2 2021

1926-1970 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, L48-52

1900-2000 from Fire history and the global carbon budget, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…

Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th centuryA yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and .…https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00920.x

Climate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of
experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development.
… 25% …from climate change, and “75% is the way we manage landseenews.net/stories/106202…

WILDFIRES: Land use drove Calif. fires more than warming — expertsClimate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of experts said yesterday, blaming most of the damage on land management and development…https://www.eenews.net/stories/1062029829

Is the data back to 1926 credible? Yes, from US Historical Statistics, based on individual year national reporting (p554)

fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/pub…

Here is the critique and why it is just handwaving
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policiesClimate change is real and its impacts are mostly negative, but common portrayals of devastation are unfounded. Scenarios set out under the UN Climate…https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157

At time, fires were well-known

Here US deputy of Forest Service: “in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined.”

books.google.se/books/about/Fo…

Forestry and Permanent Prosperityhttps://books.google.se/books/about/Forestry_and_Permanent_Prosperity.html?id=kimmwgEACAAJ&redir_esc=y

Here is Obama-era National 2010 Sustainability report using the burn data back to 1926, p113

fs.fed.us/research/susta…

Sargent map from 1880, in report from 1884, definite underestimate (because many didn’t report back)

insert, p491

biodiversitylibrary.org/bibliography/2…

4.5-12% of California area likely used to burn *every* year before 1800

2020, the biggest burn year in the records, burned 4% of California (1.7Mha/4.25M acres)

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/

Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California’s forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslandsIn the majority of US political settings wildland fire is still discussed as a negative force. Lacking from current wildfire discussions are estimates…https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112707004379

New York Times 1781, “the smoke was so dense that many persons thought the day of judgment had come”

nytimes.com/1894/09/03/arc…

THE CAUSE OF THE HAZY AIR; ALL DUE TO THE UNUSUAL PREVALENCE OF FOREST FIRES. Opinions of Profs. Hazen and Abbe of the Weather Bureau — Parallels Drawn Between the Conditions Now and Those Marking the “Dark Day” of 1781 and “Yellow Day” of 1881 — A Comet’s Tail Has Nothing to do with the Case. (Published 1894)Hazy Air Due to Forest Fires; Precedents https://www.nytimes.com/1894/09/03/archives/the-cause-of-the-hazy-air-all-due-to-the-unusual-prevalence-of.html

EPA burn estimate with RCP8.5 (unrealistically enormous coal-based future) and RCP4.5 (emissions reduced by 82% below RCP8.5 by 2100, 62% across total emissions, 2020-2100)

I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages

cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…