Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: Hurricane Beryl is a natural

https://www.cfact.org/2024/07/01/hurricane-beryl-is-a-natural/

By Joe Bastardi

Hurricane Beryl shows what nature can do.

Is it a man-made climate change example?

NO!

The climate is always changing. Man’s input just may come in third in order of importance.

The Le Chetileirs Principle is too often ignored by those wedded to the man-made climate narrative.

No one denies the climate changes.  The argument is over attribution.

Consider the solar impact over the last 35 years of increased geothermal input.

The numbers are tough to argue with.

So is the geological time record.

So is the reconstruction of the medieval warm period and today’s temps.

In the shorter term ( since last December), shock and awe were expected. When the oldest living global private sector tropical forecaster ( me)  says a hurricane season from hell is on the way, I can’t help that it is ignored until shortly before it shows up.

The climate does change.  This year, as has been argued since late last year, would see the Atlantic the focus relative to averages the most global activity record warm water (again see geothermal input) and a more favorable look in the eastern Pacific as well as the Atlantic ( notice the cooling north of the very warm water, and of course off western North America). This “focuses” heat in the main development region.

As I have pointed out countless times, these rapid feedbacks are all with smaller storms in phase 2 or 3 of the Madden Julian Oscillation which we are in now.

You can scream man-made climate change all you want, but the man-made part is likely exaggerated compared to natural drivers.

Meanwhile, if you want to play that game and you are all about the global aspect, the fact the western Pacific Ocean had its 3rd latest start on record and nothing since then, and on Tuesday, the Eastern Pacific will break its record for the latest ever, you are guilty of a cherry pick while ignoring what is the largest orchard, the Pacific. The Pacific ACE index by the end of June ( total basin) is 53.2. We will be at less than 20% of that, an astoundingly low figure, and given the much larger climate signal, a counterweight to the rapid feedback of Beryl. It is also the classic example of what I keep trying to point out. That the DISTORTED PATTERN OF warming can HAVE  THE OPPOSITE EFFECT ON THE KIND OF DISASTER EXTREMES THAT ARE SO OFTEN CHERRY PICKER. It’s an extreme, all right, but the opposite, and certainly, no one in the western Pacific is complaining about the last several years of below-average activity.

In a way, the things I see today from the meteo misinformation media are like the debate. When you hide something, and then it shows up, people who have no idea that it was hidden are in shock. I suspect many people on the other side of the issue know that the overall balance of the entire system is such that there is just as much going on the other way than how they portray things ( I dealt with that in my last article).

If you are in shock and awe over Beryl, that’s on you. As sea surface temperatures are like August, the atmosphere will act like August when given the right conditions. Those conditions this year are in the Atlantic Basin. My company, weatherbell.com, saw this last December, and we have been saying so. Quite frankly I was wondering what took it so long.

But perspective and the total picture is something not in vogue today. In everything, crucial facts are hidden. I keep trying to show them with climate and weather, the other side of the story. And the huge, massive elephant in the room is that the busiest basin in the world is running less than 20% of average and has a record slow start in the eastern Pacific and 3rd slowest in the west. Globally, that is a huge deal.

If the nation panics into making rash decisions about the weather, it will be hard to undo the damage.