Hurricane season ends, leaving egg on the face of stolen valor, fake Nobelist @MichaelEMann. Climate hoaxer Mann sensationally predicted 33 named storms — “the highest count ever predicted.” There were only 18. Mann actually achieved the “wrongest count ever predicted.” pic.twitter.com/ti5UNJzPdt
— Steve Milloy (@JunkScience) November 30, 2024
Is it too much to expect that WaPo @capitalweather will update its April 24, 2024 story spotlighting stolen-valor-fake-Nobelist @MichaelEMann‘s prediction of 33 named storms for the hurricane season that just ended over the weekend? Only 18 named storms occurred. Can you guys ask… pic.twitter.com/Zbj1BjTxmG
— Steve Milloy (@JunkScience) December 2, 2024
Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
The figure above shows how seasonal hurricane forecasts — that is forecasts made earlier in the year before the hurricane season began — performed versus climatology (the red dot).4 Overall, the forecasts were directionally correct but quantitatively too aggressive. A few forecasts were very close to the actual results. For a rigorous effort to evaluate the skill of seasonal forecasts over time, have a look at this report by Phil Klotzbach and colleagues at Colorado State University. Of note, Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania predicted 33 named storms (there were 18) due to human-caused climate change, which would translate to an ACE value of about 300, far above the top of the Y-axis in the figure above (using the average ACE per storm of 2024).
