Search Results for: satellite data sea level

New Study: Tide gages find no global ‘acceleration in sea level’ – But satellite data ‘manipulated’ to show acceleration

Via: http://www.ijesi.org/papers/Vol(6)8/Version-1/G0608014851.pdf Abstract: Sea level changes is a key issue in the global warming scenario. It has been widely claimed that sea is rising as a function of the late 20th’s warming pulse. Global tide gauge data sets may vary between +1.7 mm/yr to +0.25 mm/yr depending upon the choice of stations. At numerous individual sites, available tide gauges show variability around a stable zero level. Coastal morphology is a sharp tool in defining ongoing changes in sea level. A general stability has been defined in sites like the Maldives, Goa, Bangladesh and Fiji. In contrast to all those observations, satellite altimetry claim there is a global mean rise in sea level of about 3.0 mm/yr. In this paper, it is claimed that the satellite altimetry values have been “manipulated”. In this situation, it is recommended that we return to the observational facts, which provides global sea level records varying between ±0.0 and +1.0 mm/yr; i.e. values that pose no problems in coastal protection. Keywords: Manipulation, observational facts, satellite altimetry, sea level change, tide gauges ————————————————————————————————————————————— Date of Submission: 26-07-2017 Date of acceptance: 05-08-2017 … V. CONCLUSION Satellite altimetry is a new elegant tool to view the changes in sea level over the globe, maybe especially the spatial changes, which, indeed, verified the long-term notion that sea level change over the last 5000-6000 years are dominated by the redistribution of water masses [29]. The temporal changes, on the other hand, has always remained very questionable as they seem to over-estimate observed sea level changes by 100-400% [9-16]. It seems quite weird to claim that it would be the satellite altimetry that is right and that the true observations in the field are wrong (still this is what the people around the IPCC and the Paris agreement at COP21 continue to claim). Fig. 1 reveals what is going on. It is the satellite altimetry data, which have been “corrected” to give a rise in the order of 3.0 mm/yr. This “correction” [19-21] may, of course, be classified as a “manipulation” of facts, like the manipulation temperature measurements recently revealed [1-3]. In this situation, there are all reasons to return to solid observational facts [11-16].Those facts are controllable, and this is a key criterion in science.The global perspective is general stability to a minor rise with variations between ±0.0 and +1.0 mm/yr [16]. This poses no problem for coastal protection. Therefore, we should free the world from the horror issue that low-lying coasts and islands will become seriously flooded in this century. Up to the present, there has been no convincing recording of any acceleration in sea level, rather the opposite: a total lack of any sign of an accelerating trend. For full study see here. # End study excerpt Related Links: Sea levels have been rising since the last ice age ended more than 10,000 years ago. There is currently no acceleration in sea level rise. Sea level rise hysteria can be cured by looking at tide gauge data Sea Level 2000 years ago higher than today? Roman coastline discovered two miles inland Bjorn Lomborg About Those Non-Disappearing Pacific Islands – ‘Total land area of the islands has actually grown’ Former NASA Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer in 2016: “Sea level rise, which was occurring long before humans could be blamed, has not accelerated and still amounts to only 1 inch every ten years. If a major hurricane is approaching with a predicted storm surge of 10-14 feet, are you really going to worry about a sea level rise of 1 inch per decade? Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry of Georgia Institute of Technology: ‘Sea level will continue to rise, no matter what we do about CO2 emissions.’ – ‘The IPCC figure 3.14 suggests that there is no acceleration, given the large rates of sea level rise in the first half of the 20th century.  Until we have an understanding of variations in decadal and multi-decadal sea level rise, we can’t make a convincing argument as to acceleration.’ Meteorologist Tom Wysmuller: ‘For the past 130 years there has been ZERO acceleration in sea-level rise as directly measured by tide gauges in tectonically inert areas (land neither moving up nor down), even as CO2 has risen almost 40% in the same period.’ Peer-Reviewed Studies Demolish Warmists’ Sea Level Rise Scares: ‘Decelerated 44% since 2004′ – ‘Global sea levels have been naturally rising for ~20,000 years and have decelerated over the past 8,000 years, decelerated over the 20th century, decelerated 31% since 2002 and decelerated 44% since 2004 to less than 7 inches per century. There is no evidence of an acceleration of sea level rise, and therefore no evidence of any effect of mankind on sea levels. Global sea level rise from tide gauges (1.6 mm/year) is half of that claimed from satellites (3.2 mm/year). Which is right? – ‘There is no acceleration of the increase’ – [Climate Depot Note: According to tide gauges, Sea Level is rising LESS than the thickness of one nickel (1.95 mm thick) per year or about the thickness of one penny (1.52 mm thick) a year. According to satellite info it is rising slightly more than two pennies a year (3.04 mm)]

Here we go again: Satellite sea level data ‘adjusted’ to show acceleration – ‘Climate Mafia At Work On Sea Level’

Posted on July 22, 2017 by tonyheller One week after they forced Carl Mears into compliance over satellite temperatures, the climate mafia has forced the University of Colorado into compliance over satellite sea level measurements. The numbers didn’t add up. Even as Earth grew warmer and glaciers and ice sheets thawed, decades of satellite data seemed to show that the rate of sea-level rise was holding steady—or even declining. Nerem’s team calculated that the rate of sea-level rise increased from around 1.8 millimetres per year in 1993 to roughly 3.9 millimetres per year today as a result of global warming. Satellite Snafu Masked True Sea Level Rise for Decades – Scientific American The same story repeats itself over and over again. Climate scientists adjusting the data to increase the imaginary effects of global warming. see Tony Heller’s Video:  Never mind that Antarctica is gaining ice, not losing it, causing sea level to fall. NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses | NASA Never mind that the surface of Greenland has gained more than 600 billion tons of ice over the past year, causing sea level to fall. Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI Never mind that tide gauges don’t show any increase in the rate of sea level rise, much less a doubling. Sea Level Trends – State Selection Sea Level Trends – State Selection Sea Level Trends – State Selection Global Sea Level Trends – Mean Sea Level Trend The latest claims are more than double what tide gauges show. Sea Level Trends – Global Regional Trends Ninety percent of tide gauges show less sea level rise than the latest satellite adjustments. Sea Level Trends – MSL global stations trends table The climate mafia is also at work trying to increase the rate of tide gauge sea level rise, but individual stations don’t show this increase. NASA 1982NASA 2016

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC): Past 3 years in a row set ice record! ‘Sea ice in Antarctica has remained at satellite-era record high daily levels for most of 2014’

Figure 6c. Monthly Antarctic September ice extent for 1979 to 2014 shows an increase of 1.3% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center High-resolution image On September 22, 2014, Antarctic ice extent increased to 20.11 million square kilometers (7.76 million square miles). This was the likely maximum extent for the year. This year’s Antarctic sea ice maximum was 1.54 million square kilometers (595,000 square miles) above the 1981 to 2010 average maximum extent, which is nearly four standard deviations above this average. The 2014 ice extent record is 560,000 square kilometers (216,000 square miles) above the previous record ice extent set on October 1, 2013. Each of the last three years (2012, 2013, and 2014) has set new record highs for extent in the Antarctic. The monthly average Antarctic ice extent for September 2014 is 20.03 million square kilometers (7.73 million square miles). This is 1.24 million square kilometers (479,000 square miles) above the 1981 to 2010 average for September ice extent. The Antarctic sea ice trend for September is now +1.3% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. … A comparison of ice extent (Figure 6a) with ice concentration trends (Figure 7) illustrates that the areas of unusual ice growth are in the same places that have been showing ongoing trends of increased ice extent. This suggests that wind patterns play a significant role in the recent rapid growth in Antarctic ice extent. However, another possible reason is that recent ice sheet melt, caused by warmer, deep ocean water reaching the coastline and melting deeper ice, is making the surface water slightly less dense. While the change in saltiness is too small to significantly affect the freezing temperature, the increase in slightly less dense water surrounding Antarctica inhibits mixing, creating conditions that favor ice growth (as we discussed in our July 17 post).

No, Smithsonian Magazine, Climate Change Is Not the Main Driver of Satellite Collision Risk—The Sun Is

No, Smithsonian Magazine, Climate Change Is Not the Main Driver of Satellite Collision Risk—The Sun Is By Anthony Watts A recent article from Smithsonian Magazine (SM) titled “Climate Change Might Increase Satellite Collisions, Limiting How Many Can Safely Orbit Earth, Study Finds” claims that human-induced climate change is causing the upper atmosphere to contract, reducing drag on satellites and space debris, which could lead to more collisions. This is misleading if not outright false. Multiple studies show the dominant factor influencing the density and temperature of the upper atmosphere—where some satellites orbit—is solar activity, not carbon dioxide emissions. Data from decades of space research confirm that variations in solar radiation, particularly changes in ultraviolet (UV) output and solar wind, have far greater impacts on atmospheric density than any CO₂-driven effects. The study, referenced by the SM article, is summarized as: “The thermosphere, which begins around 50 miles (80 kilometers) above Earth’s surface, is contracting. This is because as greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane accumulate in the lower atmosphere, they radiate heat into space and cause the upper atmosphere to cool and shrink.” This claim exaggerates the role of human greenhouse gas emissions while ignoring the well-documented influence of solar variability. The thermosphere, seen in the graphic from The Canadian Space Agency below, is primarily heated by the Sun’s intense ultraviolet radiation, and its temperature and density fluctuate significantly in response to the 11-year solar cycle. When solar activity is high, the thermosphere expands, increasing drag on satellites and space debris. Conversely, during solar minima, the thermosphere contracts. These natural solar-driven variations completely overshadow any potential effect from anthropogenic CO₂. The Earth’s atmosphere has five primary layers: the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and the exosphere. Image: Canadian Space Agency A study in the Journal of Space Research confirms that thermospheric temperature fluctuations are overwhelmingly linked to solar output, not greenhouse gases. Similarly, research in Space Weather Science demonstrates that solar activity is the primary driver of upper atmospheric density changes, affecting satellite drag far more than any CO₂-related cooling. In addition, a report in EOS shows that during a weaker-than-normal solar cycle, the thermosphere cooled and contracted more than expected. This aligns with long-term observations that solar variability dictates thermospheric behavior. NASA also credits the sun as driving the changes in the thermosphere. While many satellites orbit Earth in the thermosphere, most Earth-orbiting satellites reside in the exosphere, such as geostationary satellites with orbits at 22,500 miles even higher than the exosphere, the outermost layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, where the atmosphere thins out and merges with outer space. So, the concerns about the thermosphere in the SM article are mostly moot, especially since many satellites that orbit in the thermosphere can boost with thrusters to a higher orbit if needed. Engineers plan for this. The SM  article also fails to consider historical data. If CO₂ were truly the primary driver of thermospheric contraction, we would expect to see a steady, predictable decline in atmospheric density as CO2 emissions have increased. Instead, we observe clear cyclical patterns that correspond with the 11 year solar cycle, not industrial CO₂ emissions. During past solar minima, such as the Dalton Minimum (1790–1830) and the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), similar thermospheric contractions occurred—long before human activity significantly increased CO₂ levels. By pushing a climate change-driven explanation while ignoring the Sun’s dominant role, and ignoring where most satellites orbit Earth, Smithsonian Magazine is misrepresenting what science tells us about the atmosphere and what drives change in it. Space debris is a real issue that requires attention, but CO2 neither creates space debris nor is making collision with such debris more likely. Blaming CO₂ emissions for upper-atmospheric changes is a false narrative and distracts attention from the real problem of how to handle space debris

Subsidence Is Sinking Coastal Cities – Climate Change Isn’t Raising Seas – ‘Long-term sea-level rise trend data does not support claims that seas are rising at historically unusual rates’

You Almost Got It Right, New York Post, Subsidence Is Sinking Coastal Cities, Climate Change Isn’t Raising Seas By Anthony Watts A recent New York Post (NYP) article, “Scary Map Reveals Major Coastal Cities Rapidly Sinking into Sea”, reports that a study from NASA claims that several major coastal cities are sinking at alarming rates due to a combination of land subsidence and rising sea levels. The NYP specifically mentions sea level problems in New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and other cities, suggesting that their problems are due to a combination of subsidence and rising seas, the latter exacerbated by climate change. The latter point is misleading. Land subsidence is a well-documented problem in some cities, largely driven by local human activities such as groundwater extraction, poor urban planning, and natural geological processes. Subsidence is not due to climate change. However, despite NASA’s claim, long-term sea-level rise trend data does not support claims that seas are rising at historically unusual rates. In fact, seas have been rising at a modest and steady rate for over a century, with no significant acceleration linked to human-caused emissions. “In many parts of the world, like the reclaimed ground beneath San Francisco, the land is moving down faster than the sea itself is going up,” writes Marin Govorcin, the lead author of the NASA study. who specializes in remote sensing at NASA’s Propulsion Laboratory.” Commenting on the study, Alexander Handwerger, another researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory said, “The speed is more than enough to put human life and infrastructure at risk.” “Accounting for this descent, sea levels — which are on the rise due to climate change — could creep up more than twice as much as previously forecast in Los Angeles and San Francisco in 25 years,” the NYP commented, but the key to the statement and the study itself is land subsidence, not rising seas. Land subsidence is a localized issue caused primarily by excessive groundwater extraction, infrastructure issues, sediment compaction, and tectonic shifts. Climate change is not a factor in subsidence. The study, published in Science Advances, cites short term data from satellites to imply that global sea-level rise is accelerating, an implication the NYP fails to question. However, real-world tide gauge data does not support this claim. Long-term records from tide gauges—considered the gold standard for measuring local sea-level changes—show no evidence of unusual acceleration. For example, NOAA’s tide gauge data from New York City’s Battery Park station, which has recorded sea levels since 1856, shows a steady rise of about 2.85 millimeters per year—a rate that has remained consistent for more than a century. This aligns closely with global tide gauge records, which show that average sea levels have been rising at a rate of 1-3 millimeters per year since the 1800s. Importantly, this gradual rise is not accelerating, despite increasing CO₂ emissions over the past several decades. See Figure 1 below: Figure 1: Tide gauge derived plot of sea level trend since 1856 for New York City. The relative sea level trend is 2.94 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.09 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1856 to 2024 which is equivalent to a change of 0.96 feet in 100 years. Source: NOAA Tides and Currents.   Similarly, tide gauges in San Francisco show a steady sea level rise trend that is even lower than that found in New York City. (See Figure 2, below) Figure 2: The relative sea level trend is 1.98 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.17 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1897 to 2024 which is equivalent to a change of 0.65 feet in 100 years. Source: NOAA Tides and Currents Los Angeles’s rate of sea level rise, shown in Figure 3 below, is lower and slower still. Figure 3: The relative sea level trend is 1.05 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.21 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1923 to 2024 which is equivalent to a change of 0.34 feet in 100 years. Source: NOAA Tides and Currents. These three tide gauges from cities mentioned in the NYP article show no short- or long-term acceleration in sea level rise. Globally, in fact, there is little if any acceleration of sea level rise as data presented in Climate at a Glance: Sea Level Rise, demonstrates. Even if recent increases in the rate of rise recorded by some satellites are fully attributable to man-made climate change, it adds only 0.3 inch per decade more to the preexisting historic trend, and is still lower than the rate of rise that has occurred across many periods since the Earth entered its most recent interglacial 18,000 to 12,000 years before present. Recent modest sea level trends contradict claims that climate change is making sea levels rise at “scary” and accelerated rates. In fact, multiple studies have shown that sea-level rise has remained relatively constant since the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century, here, here, here, and here, for example. If greenhouse gas emissions were truly driving an acceleration, we would expect to see a sharp upward trend in tide gauge records over the past 50 years—but we don’t. A 2022 study highlighted in Climate Realism found that media claims of accelerating sea-level rise are often based on cherry-picked satellite data that fails to align with ground-based tide gauge measurements. By conflating land subsidence with sea-level rise, all too often media outlets like the NYP mislead the public into believing that climate change is primarily or even solely responsible for coastal flooding threats. This is scientifically inaccurate and distracts from the real issues with subsidence that cities face. By focusing their efforts on the causes of land subsidence, such as ground water extraction issues, and compaction of unstable soil and fill used to add land to city oceanfront, rather than being distracted by the minimal or non-existent role greenhouse gas emissions are having in on sea level rise, policy makers could have far more direct and substantial impact on preventing flooding and losses. The New York Post got the story half right. Its reporting would have been better had it eschewed any mention of climate change as a factor in the problems facing certain coastal cities.

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