Search Results for “tide gauge”

Analysis: Tide gauges do not reflect sattelite claims of ‘accelerating’ sea level rise

October 9, 2024

Rapidly Accelerating Sea Level Rise Rapidly Accelerating Sea Level Rise by Tony Heller NASA shows that sea level rose at a rate of 0.9 mm/year from 1950 to 1995, and then accelerated to 3.3 mm/year from 1995 to 2018, but I can’t find any tide gauges which reflect that change. Sea Level | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet Projections of accelerating sea level rise from NOAA were failing badly, so NOAA quietly changed their projections to push the divergence date from 2000 out to 2030. Sea Level Trends – NOAA Tides & Currents 8518750.png (951×537)

‘This claim is demonstrably false’: Scientists rebut NOAA sea-level projections – Reality Check: ‘Tide gauges clearly do not’ project acceleration of sea-level

May 24, 2022

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/sea_level_acceleration_that_other_big_lie/ Sea-Level Acceleration – That Other Big Lie By Joseph D’Aleo, Nils Axil Morner and Tom Wysmuller NOAA Ocean Service 2022 report: The Next 30 Years of Sea Level Rise “Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 – 12 inches (0.25 – 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 – 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.” REBUTTAL This claim is demonstrably false. It really hinges on this statement: “Tide gauges and satellites agree with the model projections.” The models project a rapid acceleration of sea level rise over the next 30 to 70 years. So it must be true. However, while the models may project acceleration, the tide gauges clearly do not. All data from tide gauges in areas where land is not rising or sinking show instead a steady linear and unchanging sea level rate of rise near 4 inches/century, with variations due to gravitational factors. It is true that where the land is sinking as it is in the Tidewater area of Virginia and the Mississippi Delta region, sea levels will appear to rise faster but no changes in CO2 emissions would change that. The implication that measured, validated, and verified Tide Gauge data support this conclusion remains simply false. All such references rely on “semi-empirical” information, which merges, concatenates, combines, and joins, actual tide gauge data with various models of the reference author’s choosing. Nowhere on this planet can a tide gauge be found, that shows even half of the claimed 3.3 mm/yr sea level rise rate in “Tectonically Inert” coastal zones. These are areas that lie between regions of geological uplift and subsidence. They are essentially neutral with respect to vertical land motion, and tide gauges located therein show between 1 mm/yr (3.9 inches/century) and 1.5 mm/yr (6 inches/century rise). At the northern end of the sinking land areas in Portland, Maine, a change of just 1.9mm/year (7.5 inches a century). Holgate (2007) showed the slowing as the glacial melt slowed and the current trend slope pales in comparison to the long-term trend. Source here. A Real Expert on Sea levels The great Swedish Oceanographer, Nils-Axel Morner, has commented on this extensively, and his latest papers confirm this ‘inconvenient truth’. Furthermore, alarmist claims that “Satellites agree with the model projection” are false. Because of local factors affecting gauges, technology was introduced to provide more objective measurement of sea level rise. In all cases the new satellite and radar altimeter data showed flat or even decreasing sea levels. Since these results conflicted with previous alarmist model forecasts and claims, adjustments to this data were made – including a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment GIA). GIA assumes that land is rebounding from long ago glaciations and oceanic basins are deepening and thus is masking the true sea level rise. Enlarged Enlarged The assumption is that this rebounding is masking the true sea level rise. Alarmists continue to proclaim that their models project a rapid acceleration of sea level rise over the next 30 to 70 years, when those same models have failed to even come close to accurately predicting the past 25 years. So like with other inconvenient data, they push the agencies to “fix it” to fit the models instead of rethinking the models. A new study affirms what satellite data have been telling us for years: ‘the global coastline is prograding.’ This isn’t the first time shoreline expansion in the era of global warming and allegedly rapid sea level rise has been documented. A 2019 global-scale analysis of 709 islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans revealed 89% were either stable or growing in size, and that no island larger than 10 ha (and only 1.2% of islands larger than 5 ha) had decreased in size since the 1980s. Likewise, the globe’s beaches have been growing by 0.33 m/year since 1984. In a press release for a 2016 paper on coastal land area changes from 1985 to 2015, scientists acknowledged this: ‘We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world’ – BBC. Today there are high resolution satellite images available from Google Earth clearly demarcating global-scale decadal shoreline change since the 1980s. Claims of dangerously accelerating sea level rise posing an imminent global threat to coasts have once again been challenged by real-world observational evidence.” Indeed, global warming is not resulting in rising sea levels. ——– The Biden OMB in the same releases on sea level threats talked about the increased dangers with wildfire and hurricanes. We have shown here that any increase in the impacts of annual dry season forest fires are a forest management and environmental and governmental policy induced issue, not a Global Warming induced one. They had declined the last century until environmentalists who have a distain for foresters, farmers and ranchers took over control. Enlarged Hurricane damages have increased as the property at risk in the attractive coastal areas skyrocketed. Losses for 2018 were estimated at $91 billion and for 2019 were $45 billion. This past decade was the quietest one for landfalling hurricanes (behind the 1970s) and major hurricanes (behind only the 1860s). Enlarged See more here

World’s 76 Best Tide Gauges (100+ Years Of Data) Show A Mean 0.34 mm/yr Rise, ‘Negligible’ Acceleration

June 20, 2019

https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/20/worlds-76-best-tide-gauges-100-years-of-data-show-a-mean-0-34-mm-yr-rise-negligible-acceleration/ By Kenneth Richard A new scientific paper affirms “all the long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges of the world consistently show a negligible acceleration since the time they started recording in the late 1800s/early 1900s” and there is “no sign of climate models predicted sharply warming and accelerating sea level rise.” Image Source: Boretti, 2019 An accurate determination of sea level rise acceleration trends requires at least 100 years of data due to the natural (60- to 80-year) oscillations that could bias the results depending on the start and end dates. There are 88 world tide gauges with a record length of at least 100 years in the psmsl.org data base. Of those, 76 have no data quality issues. The average rate of rise for these 76 global-scale tide gauges is just 0.337 millimeters per year (mm/yr), and the acceleration is a “negligible” 0.007 mm/yr². Thus, the average rate of sea level rise for the world’s best long-term-trend (LTT) tide guages amounts to about 3½ centimeters per century. Further, the relatively high (2 to 3 mm/yr) local rates of sea level rise in the studied region (the Mexican Caribbean) were determined to be primarily associated with land subsidence. This affirms the conclusion (Piecuch et al., 2018) that geological processes, or vertical land motions, are more influential than climate-related processes in establishing local relative sea level trends. These results once again serve to undermine the model-based claims that the world’s seas are sharply rising and accelerating due to CO2-induced global warming. Boretti, 2019 A realistic expectation of sea level rise in the Mexican Caribbean “Because of the well-known multi-decadal natural oscillations of periodicity up to quasi-60 years (Chambers, Merrifield & Nerem, 2012; Schlesinger & Ramankutty, 1994), not less than 100 years of continuous recording in the same location and without quality issues are needed to compute rates and accelerations by linear and parabolic fittings. However, not a single tide gauge has been operational since 1870 in the southern hemisphere, and very few tide gauges have been operational since 1870 in the northern hemisphere.” “If we now take a subset of the 1269 tide gauge records of www.psmsl.org, requesting a range of not less than 100 years, there are 88 tide gauges total around the world satisfying this criterion. If we neglect the tide gauges having quality issues, such as data originating from multiple tide gauges, misaligned data, significant gaps, there are then 76 tide gauges left. These tide gauges have an average rate of rise 0.337, max. 6.660, min. -7.903 mm/yr., and an average acceleration 0.00700, max. 0.06090, min. -0.05560 mm/yr².” “All the long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges of the world consistently show a negligible acceleration since the time they started recording in the late 1800s/early 1900s, much less than the +0.022 mm/yr2.” “Hence, the state of the oceans cannot be described as sharply warming and accelerating since 1870, as there is yet no sign of the climate models predicted sharply warming and accelerating sea level rise.” Image Source: Boretti, 2019 “Apart from land motions of longer and wider scales, it is however important to measure the local vertical motion of the land in an absolute reference frame. From GPS monitoring of fixed domes nearby the tide gauge, the subsidence in Key West is comparable to the relative sea level rise. In the nearby global positioning system (GPS) dome of CHIN, distance to tide gauge 400 m, with data 2008.91 to 2018.99, the subsidence is -3.017±2.256 mm/yr. (Blewitt, Hammond, & Kreemer, 2018). The relative sea level, rises here, mostly because of the land sinks. On a shorter, but still long, time-frame, Peltier (1986) calculated the GIA subsidence of the Atlantic margin for the entire east coast of the United States, with specific for Florida a subsidence rate of about 1 mm/yr.” Image Source: Boretti, 2019

30 years of NOAA tide gauge data debunk 1988 Senate hearing climate alarmist claims

March 6, 2019

30 years of NOAA tide gauge data debunk 1988 Senate hearing climate alarmist claims https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/05/30-years-of-noaa-tide-gauge-data-debunk-1988-senate-hearing-climate-alarmist-claims/ Guest essay by Larry Hamlin NOAA has updated its coastal tide gauge measurement data through year 2018 with this update now providing 30 years of actual data since the infamous 1988 Senate hearings that launched the U.S. climate alarmist political propaganda campaign. In June of 1988 testimony was provided before Congress by various scientists, including… — gReader Pro

Disappeared: Tide gauges showing negative absolute sea level rise removed from data base

June 7, 2018

Disappeared: Tide gauges showing negative absolute sea level rise removed from data base https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/disappeared-tide-gauges-showing-negative-absolute-sea-level-rise-removed-from-data-base/ Guest essay by Albert Parker Today I was informed of an alarmist claim about the sea levels of Perth, Western Australia, Australia. It started with this story: “In the next eight years our water level is going to increase by about 25cm, which is much higher than the water level increase for the last 115… — gReader Pro

Report: ‘Adjustments’ To Create Fake Sea Level Rise Have Now Infected PSMSL Tide Gauge Data

December 6, 2017

By Kenneth Richard on 4. December 2017 ‘Adjustments’ To Create Spurious Sea Level Rise Have Now Infected The PSMSL Tide Gauge Data In a new paper published in Earth Systems and Environment this month, Australian scientists Dr. Albert Parker and Dr. Clifford Ollier uncover evidence that Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) overseers appear to have been engaging in the “highly questionable” and “suspicious” practice of adjusting historical tide gauge data to show recent accelerated sea level rise where no such acceleration (or rise) exists. Extensive evidence from “tide gauges, coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, and historical documentation” all suggest that sea levels in the Indian Ocean have effectively been stable in recent decades. The authors expose how PSMSL data-adjusters make it appear that stable sea levels can be rendered to look like they are nonetheless rising at an accelerated pace. The data-adjusters take misaligned and incomplete sea level data from tide gauges that show no sea level rise (or even a falling trend). Then, they subjectively and arbitrarily cobble them together, or realign them. In each case assessed, PSMSL data-adjusters lower the earlier misaligned rates and raise the more recent measurements. By doing so, they concoct a new linearly-rising trend. This adjustment of tide gauge data to yield a rising sea level trend where none exists is not occasional or episodic. Instead, for every adjustment of raw data analyzed, “the adjustments are always in the direction to produce a large rise in sea level.” The suspicious perpetuity of this pattern strongly suggests that there is an agenda driving these arbitrary and subjective realignments. From all appearances, the data-adjusters at PSMSL are attempting to “correct” the sea level rise data that do not support the conceptualization of a rapidly-rising sea level trend in response to rising human CO2 emissions. As Drs. Parker and Ollier conclude: “It is always highly questionable to shift data collected in the far past without any proven new supporting material.”

Study: Sea level rise not following CO2 rise – Growing inconsistency between tide gauges & IPCC models

August 14, 2017

Sea levels: A reality of stability vs. the growing fantasies By Albert Parker & Clifford Ollier In our latest work [1] of title “CALIFORNIA SEA LEVEL RISE: EVIDENCE BASED FORECASTS VS. MODEL PREDICTIONS” we demonstrated the growing inconsistency between the tide gauge measurements and the models by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and local Californian boards, for example, [2] and [3]. The ocean levels have been for the most part oscillating about an almost linear pattern since the begin of the twentieth century up to this point. If the IPCC prediction of up to 0.85 m sea level rise by 2100 is already an exaggeration, the forecast by the Californian boards of up to 1.67 meters and lastly up to 3.05 meters are just a proof that there is no constraint to the climate change deception. The difference amongst models and reality is increasing as opposed to being lessened. As discussed in [1], different data sets of tide gauges show relatively small “trends” and negligibly small “accelerations”: +0.862±0.487 mm/year and +0.012±0.046 mm/year2 “PSMSL-199” data set (global, range >60 years), +0.49±0.34 mm/year and +0.0063±0.0263 mm/year2 “PSMSL-162” data set (global, range >80 years), +1.61±0.21 mm/year and +0.0020±0.0173 mm/year2 “Mitrovica-23” data set (long term stations, high quality), +1.77±0.17 mm/year and +0.0029±0.0118 mm/year2 “Holgate-9” data set (long term stations, high quality), +1.000±0.458 mm/year and +0.005±0.041 mm/year2 “NOAA-199” data set (global, range>60 years, no quality check); +0.40±0.27 mm/year and +0.0090±0.0208 mm/year2 “NOAA-120” data set (global, range>80 years, one quality check passed); +2.123+0.549 mm/year and -0.008±0.049 mm/year2 “US-71” data set (US only, range>60 years, no quality check), +1.63±0.23 mm/year and +0.0021±0.0192 mm/year2 “US-39” data set (US only, range>80 years, one quality check passed), +1.19±0.29 mm/year and +0.0014±0.0266 mm/year2 “California-8” data set (long term stations, high quality); Figure 1 is a comparison of sea level measurements vs. sea level computations over the time window 1970 to 2016, and Figure 2 is an evidence based forecast to the year 2100 vs. the model predictions. The tide gauge measurements translate in forecasts to 2100 of 100-200 mm sea level rise, not certainly the 850 mm by the IPCC, nor the 1,670 or the 3,050 mm by [2] and [3]. The sea levels have not followed the carbon dioxide emission over the past 120 years. Hence, it is increasingly unrealistic to claim that the sea levels are driven by the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission. Fig. 1 – Comparison of sea level rises predicted by the local panels [2] (BOS-NRC) and [3] (H++), predicted by the IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 (IPCC RCP8.5), and measured by the tide gauges (averages of different data sets, California-8, PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, NOAA-199, US-71). Further details in [1]. Fig. 2 – Comparison of sea level rises by 2100 predicted by the local panels [2] (BOS-NRC) and [3] (H++), predicted by the IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 (IPCC RCP8.5), and inferred from tide gauge measurements of different data sets (California-8, PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, NOAA-199, US-71). Further details in [1]. References [1] Parker, A. & Ollier, C.D., CALIFORNIA SEA LEVEL RISE: EVIDENCE BASED FORECASTS VS. MODEL PREDICTIONS, Ocean and Coastal Management, Ocean & Coastal Management, Available online 19 July 2017, In Press, Corrected Proof. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.07.008 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569117303071 [2] Board, Ocean Studies, and National Research Council “Sea-level rise for the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: past, present, and future.” National Academies Press, 2012 [3] Griggs, G, Árvai, J, Cayan, D, DeConto, R, Fox, J, Fricker, HA, Kopp, RE, Tebaldi, C & Whiteman, EA (California Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team Working Group). Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science. California Ocean Science Trust, April 2017.

Sea level rise hysteria can be cured by looking at tide gauge data

May 25, 2017

Scaremonger photos of inundation abound in our national news this week. Famous foreshore parks are gone, islands disappear, houses, picnic areas, racecourses, golf courses — all submerged. The water rolls in over Sydney’s Circular Quay, Melbourne’s Docklands, Brisbane Airport, Hindmarsh Island — swamped. Rooned. Today its the satellite photo, tomorrow it’ll be computer generated streetscapes; coming soon, the underwater documentary: Swimming in the Opera House. This is a mocked up satellite pic of Perth, WA projecting how much ground we will lose. If you live in these future washed out zones, email me. I’ll buy your house. Compare the forecast two metre rise, to actual Tide Gauge Data for Fremantle since 1900 (Fremantle has the second longest record of sea level change in the Southern Hemisphere): Sea Level rise Fremantle, Perth, Australia shows about a 20cm rise in 110 years. So there has been a 20cm rise or so in 100 years. But 2000 cm is coming. Yeah. (For details of the way Sea Levels around Perth Coastline change see Chris Gillhams work.) This slow rate of sea level rise is not just a west coast thing: Sydney’s sea levels are rising at just 6.5cm per century. The model projections future rate of change is off the scale. Here’s that current Fremantle trend with a projected 2 metre rise to 2100 added in: … A 20cm rise in one hundred years is 2mm per annum. If the forecasts are right that rate must rise immediately to 22mm pa, a tenfold increase.

2015 Updated NOAA Tide Gauge Data Shows No Coastal Sea Level Rise Acceleration

June 3, 2016

2015 Updated NOAA Tide Gauge Data Shows No Coastal Sea Level Rise Acceleration https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/28/2015-updated-noaa-tide-gauge-data-shows-no-coastal-sea-level-rise-acceleration/ Guest essay by Larry Hamlin NOAA has updated its extensive U.S. coastal tide gauge data measurement records (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_us.htm) to include data through year 2015. These measurements include tide gauge data coastal locations for 25 West Coast, Gulf Coast and East Coast states along the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. In addition 7 … … Continue reading → — gReader Pro

Broken Altimetry? 225 Tide Gauges Show Sea Level Rising Only 1.48 mm Per Year …Less Than Half The Satellite-Claimed Rate!

April 11, 2016

Broken Altimetry? 225 Tide Gauges Show Sea Level Rising Only 1.48 mm Per Year …Less Than Half The Satellite-Claimed Rate! http://notrickszone.com/2016/04/11/broken-altimetry-225-tide-gauges-show-sea-level-rising-only-1-48-mm-per-year-less-than-half-the-satellite-claimed-rate/ Dave Burton of SeaLevel.info site here deserves widespread, world-wide exposure. Hat-tip: Kenneth Richard The site allows user-friendly observation of sea level rise trends at locations across the world using spreadsheet data direct from NOAA and PSMSL, as it is designed to be similar to Paul Clark’s popular interactive temperature graph site (woodfortrees.org). Sea levels rising less than half as fast, no acceleration! Stunningly, contrary to the claims of the modeled reconstructions of sea level rise (with “adjustments” added), actual physical measurements indicate that sea levels are rising at rates well less than half the claimed rates when including GIA “adjustments” and satellite altimetry modeled reconstructions. The best estimate is a median global mean sea level value of 1.48 mm/yr, or less than 6 inches per century. SeaLevel.info is a one-stop source for sea-level information. The spreadsheets consolidate data from NOAA, PSMSL and other sources, to simplify examination of tide-gauge data for long term sea-level trend analysis. The site writes: One interesting observation is that GIA (PGR)† adjustments are often nearly as large as the averaged actual measured sea-level trends! The average of the measured trends for NOAA’s 2012 set of 239 tide gauges is 1.017 mm/year (median 1.280), but the GIA adjustments add an average of 0.665 mm/year, giving a total “adjusted” average trend of 1.682 mm/year, which rounds to 1.7 mm/year, which happens to exactly equal a very widely-quoted figure for 20th century sea-level rise.” The site here also writes that sea level is not rising everywhere, and: The measured rate of coastal sea-level change varies from -17.59 mm/yr at Skagway, Alaska to +9.39 mm/yr at Kushiro, Japan. The average, as measured by the world’s best long-term coastal tide gauges, is just under +1.5 mm/yr (about 6 inches per century).” Satellite altimetry SeaLevel.info wonders about the often ballyhooed figures of 3.3 mm/yr (13 inches per century), based on satellite altimetry measurements of sea-level, rather than coastal sea-level measured by tide gauges. It writes that satellite altimeters “measure the wrong thing”: Their measurements are distorted by “sea-level rise” caused by thermal expansion when the upper layer of the ocean warms. But that is a strictly local effect, that doesn’t affect the quantity of water in the oceans, and doesn’t affect sea-level elsewhere (e.g., at the coasts). Sea-level rise only matters at the coasts, but satellite altimeters are incapable of measuring sea-level at the coasts. They can only measure sea-level in the open ocean. Tide gauges measure sea-level at the coasts, where it matters. Also, tide gauge measurements of sea-level are much higher quality than satellite altimetry measurements. SealLevel.info adds that “satellite measurements of sea-level are of questionable reliability, and vary considerably from one satellite to another” and that tide gauges are more reliable because “some of the tide-gauge records of sea-level measurements are nearly ten times as long as the combined satellite measurement record, and twenty times as long as any single satellite measurement record.” According to SeaLevel.info, the NOAA has done linear regression analysis on sea-level measurements (relative sea-level) from 225 long term tide gauges around the world, and found that “there’s been no sign of any acceleration (increase in rate) in most of those tide-gauge records, in over three-quarters of a century.” The site summarizes: The rate of measured sea-level rise (SLR) varies from -17.59 mm/yr at Skagway, Alaska, to +9.39 mm/yr at Kushiro, Japan. 197 of 225 stations (87.6%) have recorded less than 3.3 mm/yr sea-level rise. At 47 of 225 stations (20.9%) sea level is falling, rather than rising. Just 28 of 225 stations (12.4%) have recorded more than 3.3 mm/yr sea-level rise. The average SLR at those 225 gauges is +0.90 mm/yr. The median is +1.41 mm/yr. MSL = 1.48 mm/yr — gReader Pro

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